This Number Explains Why Constellation Brands Stock is Down After Earnings

Dow Jones
11 hours ago

Constellation Brands stock fell after hours Tuesday even as the Modelo maker topped quarterly earnings expectations, as indications of weak underlying beer demand overshadowed a stronger sales number.

Beer net sales rose 5%, driven by increasing shipment volumes to wholesalers and distributors, during Constellation's second fiscal quarter ending Aug. 31. But beer depletions -- a measure of distributor sales to retailers, bars, and restaurants -- fell 0.6%.

Depletions, which are generally a better proxy for underlying demand, declined for both Modelo Especial and Corona Extra, two of Constellation's flagship brands, although that was partly offset by growth in smaller brands like Pacifico and Victoria.

This suggests some of the sales strength may have reflected distributors' increasing inventory, rather than stronger retail demand.

Investors were paying particularly close attention to Constellation's beer business since it accounts for the vast majority of the company's profit.

Constellation said its beer business was the top dollar- and volume-share gainer in the category. Still, the company can gain market share while still having weakening demand if the overall beer category is deteriorating faster.

Wine and spirits, on the other hand, improved during the quarter. Net sales rose 17% from a year ago, while depletions increased 10.2%. The business generated operating income of $6.1 million, compared with a $19.8 million loss a year earlier.

Across all segments, Constellation Brands reported adjusted earnings of $3.74 a share, up from $3.63 a year earlier. Net sales were $2.63 billion, also up 6% from $2.48 billion in the year-ago period. Wall Street had expected earnings of about $3.55 a share on sales of $2.54 billion.

Despite the earnings and sales beat, investors appeared to focus more on continued weakness in underlying beer demand. Shares of Constellation Brands fell 4.5% in after-hours trading following the report.

The results come as new CEO Nicholas Fink, who took the top job in April, navigates a difficult environment for the alcohol industry.

Constellation has reshaped its wine-and-spirits portfolio through divestitures, while continuing to invest heavily in Mexican beer production, including the ramp-up of its new Veracruz brewery.

Fink said the company is beginning to see early returns, and Constellation is focused on continuing that momentum. Still, the company recently warned that higher logistics and commodity costs, along with increased marketing spending, could pressure margins in the second half of the fiscal year.

Constellation also disclosed that it acquired SpikedAde, a spirit-based ready-to-drink brand, after the quarter ended. The company paid $75 million upfront for the business and could pay up to another $278 million over five years depending on SpikedAde's future performance.

Constellation reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 outlook, expecting comparable earnings of $11.20 to $11.90 a share and organic net sales to range from a 1% decline to 1% growth. Management said the SpikedAde acquisition doesn't affect its fiscal 2027 outlook.

The company will host its second-quarter earnings call Wednesday morning at 8 a.m. Eastern time.

 

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